H100 lead time compressed from 52 weeks to 16 weeks — the bottleneck that justified the 2023-2025 GPU melt-up is gone. Every marginal GPU now has to earn its cost of capital in a workload, not in a backlog.
Pillar 3 — lead time. End of Phase 1.
NVDA DC guide vs street · hyperscaler capex growth rate · SMH breadth.
References trigger #2 — NVDA beats by >15% for 2 consecutive quarters means Phase 1 extends and we're early.
Cortex (SNOW) and ESRE (ESTC) monetize the RAG layer — the bridge between compute and workflow. This is where the cheapest unit of "AI revenue" gets recognized, but also the easiest to price-compete.
Pillar 2 — delivery gap, mid-capture.
Cortex consumption · ESRE attach · NRR stability above 120%.
If SaaS NRR avg drops below 100% (cross-reference risk #6 on White-Collar tracker) — Phase 2 starts losing software gravity.
PLTR AIP turns the $317B delivery gap into contracted software backlog. NOW Now Assist auto-resolves tier-1 tickets and shows up as margin expansion. DDOG's LLM observability grows 3× core — every AI workload needs monitoring. CRWD's Charlotte is the template for vertical agents.
Pillar 2 — delivery gap captured. This is the P&L conversion layer.
PLTR commercial NRR · NOW seats-per-customer · DDOG LLM-obs ARR · CRWD module attach.
References trigger #3 (PLTR NRR <130% TTM) and trigger #5 (DDOG AI cohort net-adds <30% YoY).
VEEV's pharma data moat is the case study for durable vertical AI. ACN is the mirror image — a billable-hour model that Gen-AI compresses structurally. ZM is a low-moat SaaS trapped by GPT-wrappers. The long/short pair captures the whole direction of travel for services.
Pillar 2 — end state of the delivery gap. Winners have proprietary workflow data; losers sold labor.
VEEV vault-AI attach · ACN managed-services mix · ZM contact-center attach.
References trigger #4 — if ACN raises FY guide twice in 12m, cover Short side.
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